September 4, 2010 - 0800
….how sweet is a trade when you cannot lose?! The (TYH) trade from Tuesday just refuses to give it up this week – I placed a 3% trailing STOP yesterday pre-market for a good till cancel order and guess what traders – it did not fill, the share price fluctuated and rose all day….even at the 25.50 alternative fixed STOP LOSS target I gave, you still would not have been taken out – that is just too good!!! OK, so what to do with this trade…..simple, the answer - NOTHING – just keep it on the table as is….either raise your STOP LOSS fixed target to say 26+…or reduce the % trailing stop to say 2% from 3%...either way you are making a greater profit with NO CHANCE OF LOSING ANY MONEY – get it….can it be any easier…………….OK, now to the AEZS spec play we put back on (I gave the BUY on August 25th at sub-dollar prices!)….how is that 20+ % gain feeling now, huh……..ring the register at your own convenience on this one – we have traded this spec play at least 4 times now for about 200% returns…..and NEVER had a loss on it…….and finally, you’re welcome for the EDR trade I gave up on the 25th of August at 6.60/share….another 10% worry free trade that is only going to go higher….but remember – use a STOP of some kind to lock up the profits….gains are only gains when you take them off the table…….if you followed the trades for just the past two weeks, you are up considerably at this point ….10% on TYH, the 12% you took off from FXP, 20% on AEZS and another 10% from EDR……who else is giving it up like this?.................the only “bad” call I have had this month is the regional bank play I gave (TRST) which is exactly at the price I gave the buy on back on August 25th , if purchased back then, you are flat on the trade….so if my record is any indication – I should probably load up for a double share weight on that one tomorrow, it is probably going to EXPLODE!............on a “shorter” note, for those who like to accumulate blocks prior to a pending (and I believe, inevitable reversal)…..the TZA is back in play as an “accumulate”, as well as the BGZ….a small (1/3 weight) initial block will be added to the grinders portfolio today, this counter trend rally is about to fizzle in my opinion – I am beginning the short accumulation prior to the holiday weekend and just made the buys pre-market, pre jobs report…..good luck trading, hit the donate button for a change….. and grind out the profit!
September 2, 2010 - 0645
….OK guys, settle down….I know it was scary that I called the bottom of the S&P at 1,040 the other day and gave 1,080 as a top where we closed yesterday. I made the counter trend rally call based on a single “hammer” candle formation that I noticed on several key validation charts I use - so to answer a few of your e-mails….NO, I am not an alien algorithmic freak as Ben from Dover, Iowa asked (and his screen name is really Bendover on a private stock blog!) he obviously feels that he has made a few bad trades!…no, again to Rubic in Montana who asked me if I get the newspaper a day ahead of everyone else and everyone else is living a day behind….and finally, NO to Jude from New Jersey who thinks that I use astrological and weather patterns to plot my charts – although there are many chartists who do this, I am not one of them….I only use pure technicals to chart, previous pattern cycles and what I refer to as raw data (proprietary) – never any fundementals at all – ever….I have been running various charts for over a decade and I am wrong as many times as most chartists – recently, however, I have been nailing the patterns….so ride the wave……..yesterday was a great day to validate the triple long TYH play I gave on Tuesday, returning 8% for the day – but I think it was too much too soon…..note above that I gave the S&P top of 1,080 on Monday and we hit it yesterday at the close, CLOSING prices are the only thing that matter when using a chart for long term patterns – obviously the S&P may go higher this morning and into today (as a matter of fact I hope it does so I can dump TYH) but I think at the end of the day today the markets will be red…..so again, we only care about intraday prices when day trading, they are useful on 5, 15 , 30, and 60 minute timeframes for intra-day trades but not for long term charting….I also said on Monday that the FTSE should top out at 5,275 and as you can see we blew through that level with a “gap-n-go” candle as well, this gave a clear indication to exit that trade, you need to take profits – there is no such thing as buy and hold for a trader, not here anyway…..that said, I am still sticking with my trade plan for this counter trend…..I will take the profits from the TYH play via a STOP today – either a trailing STOP set a few percent lower than any gap open….or as a definitive STOP at a set price…this way, the gains from the trade are protected….so here is how it will work: we are in TYH at 24.06/share on Tuesday, so if the markets gap up at the open this morning, I will set a trailing stop loss a few percent LOWER than the gap open price, that would be the ideal situation and the one I expect to occur, I am hoping for about 26.40 gap open……..but if the markets are flat at the open or down, I will set a STOP loss and exit the trade, hopefully no lower than 25.50……but I think the over 26 situation is going to play out…..the nice thing about using a trailing stop is that the it will “follow” the stock price up and reset accordingly, giving maximum benefit of the trade while eliminating losses – you cannot lose a gain with a trailing stop (but you need to decide at what percent you will stop out at)…keep an eye on the AEZS spec trade for that quick flip….we had 5% to the upside on that one today as well………anyway – thanks to James in Florida and Burwell of N.C. for their recent donations to the site……they are much appreciated…..I will try to keep the data flowing……good luck trading and grind out the profit!
September 1, 2010 - 0715
Unbelievable huh!? The Grinder called the bottom of the S&P to the point yesterday, I gave the 1,040 call pre-market - exactly like I did with the FTSE two weeks back when we started trading FXP....hopefully many of you followed yesterdays blog and saw that it was time to trade the counter trend rally that my chart model was indicating....I gave the SELL pre-market on FXP when it was trading at 39.09/share.....I took 50% off the table at that time (our cost basis was 34.50)for a 13% return...immediately I bought TYH @ 24.06/share (triple long technology)as I posted I would be doing, it was time to catch the impending run up on the long side - the TYH chart looked to be "more" oversold than the DOW (BGU) but regardless which long etf you chose, you did well.....here is the MOST IMPORTANT part of yesterdays trade action - DID YOU HAVE A "STOP LOSS" set in place - we have gone over this numerous times....you MUST use STOPS when trading in case the trade/trend turns against you!....my remaining core holding of FXP was taken out at 38.35 as the day continued and prices fluctuated.... this STOP LOSS not only gave me an additional 10% gain.....this completely took the FXP trade off the table and protected me from price erosion on a gap up of the FTSE - remember that I called a FTSE top of 5,275 as probable - I set my STOP at a level that I figured would protect me from a gap in the FTSE index and it worked out perfectly.....the gain was maximized off of the FXP trade and the loss was protected - we are now ONLY long on TYH for this counter trend rally (and are still holding some spec AEZS, TRST and EDR as flips from a week or so ago's post) and will revisit the short side when we deem the counter trend rally has run its course.....good luck trading and grind out the profit!
August 31, 2010 - 0700
OOOPPSS (an alert site follower informed me that I had the date wrong so this is a repost from earlier!)....beware of the counter trend! There are always gaps to the upside or downside when the markets are trading in a range - currently the trends are DOWN on all indices, however, that does not mean we cannot rally inside those downtrends....this counter trend will test overhead resistance as a top and then continue lower on its way to forming a bottom......yesterdays sell off turned out nicely for the shorts - (SPXU, TZA, BGZ, etc) all did well, however the candle that was formed on the charts were what is called an "inside candle", this could be a reversal candle - even though the futures are lower right now pre-market, I would not be surprised to see the S&P bottom out at 1,040 this morning and then snap back to try and take out 1,080 this week as the bulls try and fight the trend (they will fail), again FTSE should not exceed 5,275 - to catch this move we swing trade a portion of our holdings - to do this, we pull some off into the dips, leave a "core" position on the trade alone - and buy the long side for the anticipated counter trend move - that is what I will do this morning, pull half the FXP off the table, swing trade to something like BGU and after I beleive the counter trend rally is going to fail (it may take a week), right back to the short side in BGZ or some other short etf.......play the trends!..........good luck trading and grind out the profit!
September 1, 2010 - 0700
....beware of the counter trend! There are always gaps to the upside or downside when the markets are trading in a range - currently the trends are DOWN on all indices, however, that does not mean we cannot rally inside those downtrends....this counter trend will test overhead resistance as a top and then continue lower on its way to forming a bottom......yesterdays sell off turned out nicely for the shorts - (SPXU, TZA, BGZ, etc) all did well, however the candle that was formed on the charts were what is called an "inside candle", this could be a reversal candle - even though the futures are lower right now pre-market, I would not be surprised to see the S&P bottom out at 1,040 this morning and then snap back to try and take out 1,080 this week as the bulls try and fight the trend (they will fail), again FTSE should not exceed 5,275 - to catch this move we swing trade a portion of our holdings - to do this, we pull some off into the dips, leave a "core" position on the trade alone - and buy the long side for the anticipated counter trend move - that is what I will do this morning, pull half the FXP off the table, swing trade to something like BGU and after I beleive the counter trend rally is going to fail (it may take a week), right back to the short side in BGZ or some other short etf.......play the trends!..........good luck trading and grind out the profit!
August 30, 2010 - 0730
The markets did exactly what we expected on Friday - did anyone try and play the bounce by selling half of their FXP as we implied?...I put a sell order in for half my position at 39.50 before I left for work on Friday morning and *&^%$!, FXP topped out at 39.39....I missed the top by 11 cents....I should have ran the chart instead of just using an arbitrary number...my bad but still I am not too concerned, I think FTSE in the mid 5,200's is a peak (no higher than 5,275) then we are back to the downside, so if we do run a little further it will be a good time to add more.....Jeff S a longtime visitor to the site emailed to say that he caught both AEZS and FXP on Friday at significant discounts (actually at near the bottom)and should do quite well off of those trades - kudos, Jeff.....as for TZA, the Russell shold run to about 630 or so if adding more there and the S&P has some room left, I don't think it will make it to gap at 1,081 but it may - I would add SPXU in the 1,070's area if I were looking to add more.....TRST and EDR did as expected last week and should continue to do well......good luck trading and grind out the profit!
August 27, 2010 - 0800
It appears that the markets want to try and claw a little of the losses back today and possibly into early next week - one strategy would be to sell half of the FXP holding today and then rebuy next week if the FTSE does what I expect it to - that is it may want to try and recycle back up to the 5,265-5,275 level as a test of the previous gap....the dragonfly doji candle (a candle of indecision) on the current daily chart is implying a small bounce is about to occur but I think it will fail over the next few trading sessions......new money could be introduced at that time to the short side as well, in that the next pullback should be significant off of the speculated bounce today and early next week........this psuedo rally may also be the spark we needed for our AEZS spec play, we'll see...........good luck trading and grind out the profit!
August 26, 2010 - 0800
...don't let the psuedo rally of yesterday at the close fool you - we are definitely in a downtrend on the overall markets - it is a stock pickers market to be sure.....the short etf FXP, which we are holding at a healthy 9% gain currently, was one of the few "short etf's" that held a gain yesterday and I believe there is more profit coming our way on this trade - as for the regional bank play I gave yesterday ticker (TRST)....I am taking my initial position in that one today for this trade....EDR is a buy/hold long term, not looking to flip that one for now...and again, the AEZS spec trading stock is back in play for some action......OK a few quick reminders: always use a STOP LOSS no matter what the trade - prior to taking a position you need to rrealize "how much am I willing to lose if the trade turns against me" and set the stop accordingly....secondly - never commit all of your funds initially - build the positon in say a group of thirds: initial purchase of a third, average up OR down with a third, average back up or down with a third.....there are many different reasons for averaging up/down, you may be feeding the run by averaging up or reducing your price per share by averaging down - both very good strategies....but never take a full position at the onset of a trade - it leaves no dry powder to feed/correct a play - also if you have a major runner, say 20-30% hit, take a third off and wait for an inevitable retrace (if you are considering holding long term) this way you buy back cheaper again and feed the rally........good luck trading and grind out the profit!
August 25, 2010 0930
....I gave a (2) week break to the website and recieved numerous donations as well as many requests for addition to a "premium" subscriber list, many followers of the blog expressed both concern of the site not being updates and showed gratitude by donating to enable the site to remain functioning as normal - so with that said - I will continue to post here as normal.....anyway - the FXP (short FTSE and China) play is working out great, it is still a hold from our average of the mid 34's - also I gave SPXU and ERY at the same time (check August 11th post under the "Past trends" below).....we flipped AEZS earlier in the month, and as I told Jeff S. (a very dedicated follower from California) back around August 12th, I am reloading AEZS at these levels for another go-round.....I think todays sub dollar shares are a steal for this trade.....the regioanl bank play that I am watching is Trustco (TRST) - I actually like it as a takeover target (speculation on my part) but the chart says is near a bottom for some play action at the current levels..........also in play is EDR, a real estate developer of college dorms - I like the company and the chart - it is a strong buy here..............again, thanks to all who have made donations to maintain the site....good luck trading and grind out the profit!
August 11, 2010
......After much thought on the matter, the site is going to have to change.....there is no more free lunch folks - I gave 30% returns last week and served up the FTSE trade on a silver platter, that one alone is going to explode north for major percentage returns....prior to this I have given numerous home runs in the past few months alone....14,000 plus hits a month and only (3) people found the information useful enough to make donations - it's laughable.......I certainly do not expect to make a living off of the site but it needed to at least be self-supporting to continue - GoDaddy hosting is not free, there are costs involved with maintaining a site, not to mention the hours spent analyzing a chart.....anyway, I am not going to dedicate anymore "free" time to this blog - I am going to look into having the site set up as a premium member only site, many of you have been sending emails, etc. wanting me to run a particular ticker through the model and I have had a very high rate of success in that area, as you well know (I have even been given some nice leads on tickers this way)...so this is it....no more posts for now....good luck trading and grind out the profit!
August 11, 2010 - 07:30
check out the August 2nd post under "Past Trends" below, I gave the confirmation of the FTSE high of 5,411 as the indicator for the FXP play - I hit that call to the exact point yesterday and it failed to close higher - not too bad, huh - and that was on top of over 30% return on the other two trades I posted here last week......so now it looks like the markets are going to turn lower and the FXP trade is going to return some nice profits as well.....SPXU is probably a good choice as well and for energy hounds a little ERY for good measure can't hurt....I have been watching a reional bank from New York lately but the volume has been pretty low so I am not going to post the ticker just yet....when the time is right we will put it in play though....trust me on that....good luck trading and grind out the profit!
August 6, 2010
...well the AEZS traded out at 1.20 yesterday and that gave us another 10% for the week - over 30% returns this week for those that followed the trades - plus we are long the FXP now at mid 34's for what should turn out to be a very nice return as well....that is the only trade we have going at this time - obviously there are other short etf's that could be used for the inevitable coming sell-off in equities - but I like the FTSE index chart as a short play - it looks like it is going to get hammered!..........good luck trading and grind out the profit!
August 4, 2010 - 07:50
...it looks like the FTSE has formed a "flat" on the daily chart - these usually indicate a topping pattern and reversal....I gave the FTSE 5,411 as an indicator on Monday...if it was taken out, the trade would be off - we doubled down on Monday expecting that the FTSE would pullback, which it has - this should turn out to be a very nice trade shorting the FTSE/China with FXP - new funds could be introduced for those on the sidelines for this play, it is not nearly too late....the only other trade is the AEZS spec at these levels...looking for a quick pop and then it will be sidelines again except for the FXP trade....I have been watching DRR, SPXU and ERY also....check the charts for an entry or stay tuned here.....good luck trading and grind out the profit!
August 2, 2010 - 11:45am
....very busy lately with things - haven't updated because there were no changes - until just a few minutes ago.....SOLD all the OREX at 5.64 for a very nice 20% plus gain from last week....doubled down on FXP on todays sale price to average now in the mid 34's...watch the FTSE average to close below 5,411 as validation to that trade - playing the AEZS at these levels for a flip on anything over 10% or so......good luck trading and grind out the profit!
July 28, 2010 - 0800
....added to the OREX play yesterday (averaged at 4.70) and filled the FXP in the mid 35's...they are the only plays on the table for now....USE a STOP LOSS......good luck trading and grind out the profit!
July 27, 2010 - 0745
...well, the TZA trade turned on us and the STOP triggered at 31, that was the first real loss in quite awhile - this is why STOP LOSSES are so important, look at the action of yesterday, we could have gone done another $3/share if not for the stop....I am looking to get some FXP in the 35's possibly today - and OREX is back in play, we added some in the 4.50's yesterday and may add another block today, pre-market....that is the only play for now....taking it slow and looking for a good spec play....good luck trading and grind out the profit!
July 25, 2010 - 21:00
KUDOS to drkay01 for the donation to helping maintain the site, it is much appreciated....and this from a guy who did not even request a ticker to be run through the model! Hey folks, I am back after a few days of vacation, I did not have access to my update URL while I was away so I posted the update on the Yahoo TZA board on Friday morning and curiously enough that post and many, many other posts have been eliminated by Yahoo - I also noticed that on the TNA board, literally the entire board has been deleted and on several other message boards such as FAZ, SKF, etc. there have beeen NUMEROUS postings eliminsted - the question is, WHY? I am currently not able to get any postings to update on the Yahoo board...is anyone else seeing this dilemna? If anyone here saw and/or is able to cut/paste my yahoo entry from Friday morning, please email it to me so that I can post it here as a "verification"...I have had a few emails about what exactly my position is/was and I would like that clarified/verified.......Anyway - if you have been following the postings on the blog, and I know based on the amount of email I have been getting that there are MANY followers - the grinder is still alive on the TZA trade having narrowly missed getting taken out on the STOP LOSS...I placed my STOP at 31/share on Friday pre-market and it only came down to 31.87, so we are still in-play currently...I will also be adding to that position and averaging down, yet again, if the market plays out to my advantage - that said, I believed I saved NUMEROUS traders a boatload of money giving them the STOP trade out at 36/share (again, see PAST TRENDS, a 10% savings on the close out price on Friday - you're welcome....so where are we headed and what do we do now........well the charts are at such a crossroads it is mindnumbing - long term, it still appears that the indices are in a serious downward spiral - the monthly Russell chart plotted on a multi-year grid looks like it is clearly topped out and looking to sell-off....the 10 day, hourly chart looks like it is way overextended and ready to CRASH, except for the MACD - which is looking "undecided" - I am assuming that the longer term, weekly and monthly charts are going to hold true and that this psuedo rally attempt has just been a blowoff top/bear trap - bear markets take no prisoners as they say - both longs and shorts get burned due to the vorascious volatility - and that is exactly what we have been seeing lately - so, I am looking to the action of tomorrow as a confirmation of sorts......conventional wisdom would suggest that the rebound and taking out of the July 13th high of 644 assures that a new bull run has developed and the next "TEST" would be Russell 671, sometime this week....but I have got to take a contrarian view on this trade - I am holding fast to my TZA position into tomorrows action and will see what develops - whether I add more or dump the positon entirely will be determined probably within the first hour of trading - but it looks to me like tomorrow is going to sell of the indices BIG - time will tell............good luck trading and grind out the profit!
July 22, 2010 07:50
OK, today the pre-market futures are looking very strong, as if yesterdays gains on TZA will be pulled back....this is to be expected if the chart pattern is going to play out the way I believe it will....todays Russell candle should total about 14 points and should form what is known as an "inside candle" - basically it will stay within the range of the big red candle that was formed yesterday....it should not surpass 629 and it should not go lower than 611....again, that is if the pattern I believe is deveoping actually plays out - so now for the "Tells"...if we break below 604 on the Russell - it is off to the races with TZA...anything over 642 and the trend is broken to the upside and we abandon the TZA trade.....I am also watching the FTSE.....it looks like it is ready to drop off a cliff - the inverse head and shoulders pattern on that index is almost played out - we'll see......good luck trading and grind out the profit!
July 21, 2010
...well are you gettting frustrated yet? If you go back on the "Past Trends" link below, you will see that a few days ago I had said it would be frustrating on this recent trade to the short side with TZA....I believe it is safe to say that it has played out as expected and we have finally arrived! Now if you have followed the trade, you know that we are sitting in the mid 35's on our average price per share (PPS)....some traders did not average down and therefore I gave the STOP recommendation at 36/share....you need to be disciplined with the trades....the grinder has MUCH more room on my trade to say the 32 area with a 10% trailing stop, (35.50 X 10% = 3.55.....35.50 - 3.55 = 31.95, get the idea) so just FYI, we may not be in the same boat on this trade as I have a little more tolerance to the downside....this is another reason to take initial positons slowly and then average them up or down depending on the chart/market action......OK, so where do I think we are headed...well, I would love to see a long red candle develop today on the Russell 2000 index, it would need to measure 20 points or so over the body with a high of about 628 and then close the Russell out at about 604 for the day, that would be the ideal verification - however, the upper resistance band on my .RUT (Russell Index)chart allows for the Russell to test 642, meaning that if 642 is taken out, ALL BETS ARE OFF - and a new channel will have formed...only time will tell....tha is why we use STOPS.......OK, I dipped a toe into some AAPL PUT options yesterday and they are AUG 180 PUTS - very cheap, 2 contracts on speculation at .45/share.....why did I buy them?....well, this is clearly a spec trade - the last time I saw weird chart action like this was just before the massive drop in spring of 2008 - at that time, GE was at 32/share - I told a broker friend that GE was going to drop to 15 (17 points, over 50%!) and he told me I was crazy and that GE was one of the safest stocks IN THE WORLD, his words...., he was right, GE dropped to $5/share, even WORSE than my indicators showed........go figure - anyway, AAPL PUTS are a spec trade tah cost less than a hundred bucks - if they hit my target - 100 = $10,000....not a bad spec play, IMO.....so what is the target for AAPL on this weird chart action saying....believe it or nor....$129/share...sounds crazy, we'll see by Aug 21st...............good luck trading and grind out the profit!
July 20, 2010
.......short and sweet today - I bought some PUT options on Apple yesterday after-hours, I think that AAPL is going to sell of significantly, most analysts are expecting 300 bucks after tonights earnings report comes out, I think sub 200 by mid August - time will tell......TZA reacting just as we figured it would and today should add significantly to the bottom line of our "in play: trade on TZA............good luck trading and grind out the profit!
July 19, 2010
Well it looks like it is going to be a frustrating market for traders. The trend is definitely looking to the downside, however there appears to be some static that will try and carry the indices higher....I believe that attempt will fizzle and fail. I am holding only the etf, TZA currently...because my charts are indicating the Russell looks like it is going to turn in a low of about 575-578 off of this recent sell-off. A good trading approach would be to buy at any price at or near Fridays close (obviously, pre-market right now fits that bill) and immediately enter a 10% "TRAILING STOP LOSS" order for protection in case the trade turns against you. I do not believe that order will get filled....but you will have peace of mind and a limited loss potential. Unfortunately, with the decay factor associated with etf's (as they reset each trading day), the hopes for huge returns come more slowly - but they do come!.....I see the mid to upper 44's as a peak from this anticipated sell-off...it may bring more but I will re-evaluate at that time, I never hit a top or bottom, I try to trade for predetermined profits.....I will be looking for a few specs to play again and will post if I find any - also, I am watching the EURO for a potential currency trade - either long or short and maybe we will take a play on something else like the shippers or materials.....maybe energy or metals......not sure yet, I need to plug some tickers into my chart model.....anyway, that's it for today....good luck trading and grind out the profit!
July 17, 2010
....Jeff S, much appreciation for your continued support of this site, you were the sole Donor for the maont of July!....we had over 14,000 visitors to the site in June and may blow that number out in July....not too shabby for a static page with simple text and no advertising....for those who have tried to contact me, my yahoo.com email is not working for some reason and they have been trying to correct it but can't seem to find the bug...but I have added a grindouttheprofit@gmail and will make sure that works before updating the website.....stay tuned.....well, we nailed it again on a few levels....first off the spec plays....I unwound the last of the OREX into that nice run to 5.50 this week.......and look at that TSTR spec we gave a botttom call at .42....it is now in the upper .60's for 50% plus......I sold the majority and will hold a small (free)position until my 1.18 target or thereabouts.......AEZS was also sold for a few cents per share profit to complete the spec play unwind...we are now fully loaded to the short side ONLY with TZA and it is safe to raise the STOP to the 36 area for the nervous nellies...as we rise, we will continue raising the STOP (or using a trailing stop), ensuring a guaranteed profit will be locked in, that siad I fully expect much higher prices on TZA as this sell-off looks as if it is about to turn very ugly.....and any attempt of a rebound by the indices will only bring more sellers to the table....anyway, have a nice weekend, good luck trading and grind out the profit!
July 14, 2010
....wow - what a blow off top rally yesterday - it gave us an opportunity to add more TZA at the low 34's dropping our average PPS to the low 35's....many traders may be nervous about the run up if they are short - I took advantage of the rally to add to my short position - the major indices are all literally slamming into their respective 50 day moving averages - if they fail to clear this hurdle there will be a steep sell-off....remember to set a STOP ORDER in case the trade turns against you.....I will look for about 31 as a STOP...these trades are not for the weak stomached traders!..............good luck trading and grind out the profit!
July 13, 2010
...looks like the Russell is about to roll over to me....I have just filled my 3rd and last lot of TZA pre-market in the 36.60 range....after yesterdays inside candle and nice pop on the Russell, I am looking for a real long candle today (meaning an initial rise and then a steep sell-off) as a confirmation candle - if that develops, I think several more long red candles will follow on the Russell chart (.rut) if you want to trend it....sold half the OREX pre-market for a small loss (less than $100, but still sitting on half).....waiting on AEZS and TSTR to pop.......that's it - long term trends are still pointing lower....good luck trading and grind out the profit!
July 8, 2010
Sold all of the TNA A/H and it was a wash to within 10 bucks off of that trade.....one lot in the 39's and another in the mid 30"s - all sold A/H for 38.18....looking for a new entry into TZA or maybe even DRV on Friday the 9th....it looks like there is going to be an attempt to breakout of the 1,070 area on the S&P but I think it will fail - I will watch the early action and then decide whether or not to sell an index short - other active holds right now: still holding a few specs; OREX, TSTR and AEZS .... not too much going on with those so I may just dump them all tomorrow and stay 100% cash until I make the play to the short side - the next sell-off should get your attention, it is going to be massive, in my opinion....for chart enthusiasts, look at the Moving Average Envelope (20, 0.05)as an overlay on the DOW or S&P chart - run it at 15 years in monthly increments for a timeframe (or quarterly for that matter), add an MACD histogram for good measure - pretty scary looking.......tomorrow is another day, get on the right side of the trades - do not get stuck holding the bag....TAKE PROFITS from your trades!........good luck trading and grind out the profit!
July 1, 2010
...well that was as good a trade as anyone could ask for - we called the exact top of the Russell (June 14th) and went short TZA on (4) seperate buys since then for the 6.74 average PPS, gave the mid 8's target and wham - we hit that on Thursday July 1st.....now I am switched back to TNA as I see a relief rally in the making - it may be short lived but it is coming in my opinion.....my target for the Russell rebound is about 640 - 645, probably no higher, I want to say that the TNA should go to near 46 or so per share and then I will re-evaluate this trade (unless of course I get stopped out first)....as for the TSTR spec play - I sold half yesterday at .50 for a .02/share loss....insignificant but I had too many shares and it is not reacting well - I will hold the other half for now......dipped into a little OREX yesterday in the mid 4's and was actually going to double up on it today but figured I would wait until Fridays reports are out and see how the markets react, the chart on this one is very interesting so keep an eye on it.......AEZS is almost done selling off, too - we have had a buyback plan in place for the .80's on this spec play (we last bought at .82 and sold at 1.78 for a double)......good luck trading and grind out the profit!
June 21, 2010
....received a few emails about why the site has not been updated in a week - simple - I have said in the past that e trade is still on then I will not change the page.....TZA and TSTR are still the only trades in play right now - the DRR was given the STOP out at $56/share last week for a double from 28...I beleive that the Russell is toppped out here - I gave a target for the top of 680 to the TZA board and today it actually hit 677 intraday before pulling back and closing out the day for a loss - that to me was close enough (just missed by 2 points and change)....I do not beleive many can call it closer than that...and tomorrow intraday it may even hit 680....but regardless, I have built the TZA position and now have (4) lots that average in at about 6.74 (averaged down 3X) since last week...I still see an $8 plus handle on these shares near term, minimum.....the Russell 2000 looks like it has topped out and I see considerable downside going forward....I do not have a sell order set for TZA - I am letting this one run, once above the 8 and change mark, I will probably put a trailing stop loss on it for about 6% but that will be decided later....good luck trading and grind out the profit!
June 14, 2010
....trading after hours is kind of tough - but that is what I have been doing lately, I am not willing to place a limit order and hope it gets filled during the day while I am working, I need to see the chart action for the trade.....so we took another 16% off the table with the TNA trade and just filled A/H with the triple short Russell etf on TZA @ 6.82/share, this is a great price in my opinion, whether you are averaging down or just starting to build a position......I took an initial position in this on Friday @ 7.38 and added some more @ 7.08 so the average is now at about $7.09/share - I am comfortable there...........remember one important point, when trending these etf's; you NEED TO TREND THE INDEX they follow, you cannot trend the etf itself, they "reset" daily and are not trendable....anyway, the markets gave me the all clear to be comfortable going short after they hit upper resistance on the S&P and then sold off almost on Q - I expect the lower trendline on the Russell to hit the 605 level next rerace so I am putting about an $8.65 trade out on these latest TZA shares - I do not need to hit the exact top or bottom on these trades - remember, lock in gains before they turn to losses....this market is volatile lately - any "non-trading" funds should be all cash in a fixed instrument in my opinion......the TSTR spec trade is flatlined and I expect it to gravitate north sooner rather than later - but I myself am starting to lose patience with that one....several posters have expressed concern about the future of that one but I am simply playing the chart and it says it is going higher - so I am sitting on TSTR for awhile longer....other than the DRR recommendation which should have stopped everyone out at 56 today for a near double off of our 28 BUY call - there is nothing else in play at the moment.....good luck trading and grind out the profit!
June, 11 2010
another unbelievable play on the TNA (triple long Russell etf)...we gave the buy at 36.75 and nailed the S&P bottom of 1,042 by less than a point (the intraday low was 1,041.2) - pretty impressive if I do say so....and we had a sell order in place at $43 on the TNA trade , which was pre-determined as soon as we placed the buy order - that is a 17% return for the three day trade - not too bad once again - combine that with the 17% we pulled from TZA from the previous 3 day trade and you returned 35% in a week - nice trade!......so what are the options on this great TNA play - well, if you want to pull the $43 SELL order and replace it with something like a 3% trailing STOP order - that is a great way to maximize more gains and protect yourself from a loss if it does indeed continue higher today - that is a simple play when you have such a nice gainer - or you can sell pre-market, right now for 16% gain, which is what I may actually do - or you can just raise the sell order to 44,45,46 - whatever number you are comfortable with and hope it gets filled - but I do not like the last scenario, sometimes you will not get a fill and risk hitting a wall, then you will have to chase lower prices to sell.......soooooo it's Friday, the market looks like it is going higher than my 1,080 S&P top call and the DOW blew through my 10,120 top call by 50 points - but I am not going to be greedy - it is either $43 and out for me - or I get a fill near $43 pre-market and I am out, and looking for the pre-determined flip trade - setting a BUY order for TZA (the triple SHORT Russell etf) to again TRADE this volatility - the other trades are still in-play (DRR since $28 with a STOP at 56, and TSTR in at .53 (down .7/share with a target of 1.18) ....also, still have AEZS on the radar screen and added TRST (a local regional bank) to the rada as well but not pulling the trigger on either of those yet.....good luck trading and grind out the profit!
June 9, 2010
things are playing out ecactly as expected: TNA is setting up perfectly for $43 by Friday (we gave the buy signal yesterday and filled at 36.75)....notice what happened today - the Russell held a slight gain, keeping TNA positive for the day, while the overall markets broke out nicely, shaking out some of the shorts and sucking in more longs who are now slightly nervous/trapped in their positions, wondering if they did the right thing - and then the overall markets reversed course and sold off to close down - PERFECT for our trade......I expect tomorrow to be a significantly up day - and it will hold the gain, TNA should close over $41 tomorrow....then Friday we get the remainder of the gain in TNA and sell at our $43 target (it will give us 15% for 3 days trading)......it may go slightly higher to say the 44 area but I am not chasing it - it is going to be an immediate BUY of TZA for me at a pre-determined price point (near $7.10/share I believe) and that will be a HOLD for the time being. It looks to me like this is the last hurrah for awhile - the Russell should top out at about 680 if the chart is correct, so use that as a gauge for the trade.......I gave an .80/share rebuy of AEZS a week or so ago on the AEZS board and I think i did the same here in the archives (see Past trends, below)....initially I had said it would revisit the 1.30's as a rebuy off of our last 100% gain on that trade (bought at .82, gave the SELL at 1.78), but the chart took a turn last week and I reiterated a DO NOT BUY on AEZS until the .80's.......well just watch that one tomorrow and Friday - it is going to get hammered I beleive......I will start accumulating that one again soon so keep up on the blog for more info.........the TSTR is really frustraing alot of longs there and that is exactly the "game" with alot of these spec plays...as soon as enough long "bag holders" get shaken out, it will run a ridiculous amount in a very short timeframe....well I am here to tell you that I think the time is here for TRST, it is definitely breaking out of the bullish falling wedge that has formed, in my opinion - I think there will be significant profit in this spec play over the next few trading sessions - watch it.......good luck trading and grind out the profit!
June 7, 2010
another good trading day today - I sold ALL the TZA after hours for 8.13 (and made a public post on the TZA board informing everyone with plenty of time to trade out), that buy was posted here last week in the 6.80's and was a very nice percentage gaining trade (19% or so for the week)....it looks to me like the overall markets will recycle up again, starting tomorrow, for a last ditch effort of recovery....but I believe the rally will fail.....it is a very tricky TRADING market lately and if you aren't trading the trends, you should be in all cash - we are definitely cycling lower, but there are opportunities to trade in and out both long and short during these cycles - I think tomorrow starts another up cycle; so here is the logical play for trading: the S&P should not trade lower than 1,043 tomorrow and I think the DOW may kiss the 9,800 level or therabouts, but that should be it (and it may open to the upside and never even cycle lower) - I would try to buy a long ETF - (maybe the ultra long like TNA, BGU FAS etc, you get the idea).....right around those areas in the indices, I think that these levels will be the best buying opportunity for TRADERS - I do not think it is too early to try and trade a bounce in the market here, the markets look a little oversold to me - I do still think the market is going much, much lower longer term - but I can see a little relief rally of roughly 180-200 DOW points over the next few days.....so about DOW 9,990 - 10,010 at the top and the S&P of about a 1,070-1,080 top...after this trade, I think it is down across the board with a vengence....but it is just an opinion, so that is how I am going to play this one for now on the indices.....as for the spec play (and we always have one in-play), the TSTR is still holding at the chart indicated LOW of about .43, there is a nasty "falling wedge" formed on the TSTR chart that just needs to be broken out of....once this is broken to the upside, I believe there will be a very nice return made on this trade (although we are underwater by about a dime a share right now)...I am going to keep the STOP off of this trade and let it play out a little longer, it would be a tough break to get stopped out at .40 or so and then watch it run to the expected 1.18 top!.....other than that - NO TRADES are in play aside from the Euro short (DRR) which we gave at $28/share (see Past Trends, below) and we have a target of $65 or so on that one - I would comfortably raise the STOP on that one from the previous $54/share to $57/share now - and if stopped out, who cares - it is a double! .........good luck trading and grind out the profit!
June 3, 2010
.....I appreciate the recent donations in May - I think a few folks had a nice play in there with the AEZS trade and the DRR has certainly played out well - we also had a few nice flips of ERX/ERY/TZA etf's......boring trading the past few days, I am still holding the TSTR spec play and it actually hit my target low of .43 yesterday (I posted that on May 26), I still see a 1.18/share high on this chart, so there must be news around the corner that is going to initiate that one to run - we'll see.... TZA is still a hold/accumulate, even if the DOW hits my high target of 10,550 (I don't think so though), you can accumulate more TZA or other etf short along the way for the inevitable sell-off.....ERY at around 10.80 looks to be a bottom to me for energy players.....I may just set a buy order this morning pre-market at that price to try and get a fill today....still not chasing gold but ABX would be the play for me or GDXJ to hold some real estate in that field........good luck trading and grind out the profit!
June 1, 2010
The ERX was stopped out for a wash again - picked up a nice block of TZA @ 6.88 today and will watch the action on that one for awhile - it looks like the markets may have had there top already, I expected to see 10,550 and about 1,150 S&P but it doesn't look like that is going to happen...staying on the short side with the TZA....also, the DRR is still hold up quite well, I think the Euro goes much lower still - the 65 target on DRR is still within reach but the 54 stop is still in play as well - and finally, the old TSTR spec play.....the new phone should be out soon, then we will see how the reception is (no pun intended)to the stock - risky but worth a shot - still holding and underwater at on a large 5 digit block .53/share.....cash is king - I have nothing else invested other than the above trades -I think the smart money play is all cash unless making a trade, I would not be surprised to see ALL of the past years gains eliminated in this next wave down.....good luck trading and grind out the profit!
May 26, 2010
Today was a great trading day - the volatility allowed for some nice play in the ETF's.....if you wanted to play energy to the short side, ERY was the trade for a quick 8%, TZA also had some really nice action if you were quick on the buttons...but now it is time to go long energy again with ERX and hold with a STOP set at 27...I would like to see this run to over 35 from here.....any of the long ETF's will probably be good for the near term, but then I believe the final spike down in the markets will arrive - we are definitely trending lower longer term....I am looking for about 1,135 on the S&P as a top, give or take a few points, then all bets are off for awhile and I will trade heavily in the short ETF's - for those who do not trade, it may be wise to switch to a fixed instrument over the next week or so as a safety play - if the next wave down plays out like the charts indicate it may, things could get ugly quick - but again, for now we should rise to 1,1135 area on the S&P and the DOW would probably get to the 10,550 area....onto the Euro trade - we have been short since 28 on the Euro playing DRR.....I was hoping to see it go to the 65 area, but an interesting cross occurred on my chart yesterday - I would put a STOP at 54 and if that triggers.....something is definitely going on there...TSTR is still patiently in play - average PPS is .53.....holding for awhile longer - chart says .43 bottom and 1.18 top....we'll see.......good luck trading and grind out the profit!
May 25, 2010
Well, it's going to get ugly again today....the DRR trade is working out great for those who held, I still see this going to the neighborhood of 65-68, the Euro in my opinion is going down to par with the dollar.....any triple short ETF may well be a good hold for a week or so - just remember not to chase prices, they usually only allow a 15% move per day....still holding the TSTR, unusally high volume yesterday on no news...it will be interesting to see what happens with that one today - I gave several people the "go to all cash" nod last week and I reiterate that call - if you are not trading, I would take ALL profits and lock into a fixed instrument - the wave is definitely headed down, in my opinion.....good luck trading and grind out the profit!
May 24, 2010
Well, the TSTR spec play is gaining some strength on no news....maybe the new phone is about to be introduced???....we are now up a whopping penny per share on a significant 5 figure lot - hopefully tomorrow we get some follow-through....I was stopped out of the ERX play at 28 - a minimal loss but we need to stay disciplined with the trades......maybe a little BGZ is in order, it is trading around 16.50.............still waiting out the AEZS re-entry, I think the 1.30's are not unrealistic....choppy markets so I am keeping the stops tight and only playing the occassional trade....good luck trading and grind out the profit!
May 20, 2010
A very volatile week so far - time to sell the TZA off in the 7.30's for a nice profit and load up on some ERX right at the 29.42 level - this should go to 37 easily, I believe....I doubled up my TSTR position to average down at .53 as a spec paly and am still watching AEZS as I think a reload will probably happen down in the 1.30's.....good luck trading and grind out the profit!
May 12, 2010
I have a new spec play that is already a "moonshot" but it may go higher....it is TSTR (TerreStar Corp) - a satellite play. Read up on them and see what you think, they have the largest telecommunications satellite deployed and have a new phone about to deliver with AT&T - I am going to play this spec and see what happens over the next few weeks - the chart looks ripe for a lift-off....I see AEZS had another application approved by the FDA this morning - that and some hype on Motley Fool.com....I am not chasing that one again just yet - I see a pullback to the 1.40's after tomorrows earnings come out - we'll see......ABX is still a buy and I also like SLV but haven't been playing silver for a few months.....DRR is still "in play" I think the Euro goes much lower from here......good luck trading and grind out the profit!
May 11, 2010
Well, the PLUG play for yesterday did not get filled at .58, kind of strange too because the low of the day was .58 so it should have filled....anyway, I picked up some TZA just before the close last night to try and play any sell-down that may occur today.....6.68/share for what it's worth....I sold the remaining free shares of AEZS for another 78% profit today, I am going to sit out the earnings report due to be released on Thursday...good luck if you are still holding this one - I think it will pullback to somewhere in the 1.40's looking at the chart, I will rebuy after the noise settles down...and finally the ABX (Barrick Gold) is seeing some nice action to the upside....this is the only way I would play gold, fwiw....good luck trading and grind out the profit!
May 10, 2010
It looks like the proper call was made to wait out the markets. It was a short squeeze play for sure last week and anyone that went short Friday will suffer greatly today....I just sold half my AEZS position pre-market for over 80% gain @ 1.78 - still holding a small boatload of nearly free shares now and will probably set a stop loss of 1.55 or so to lock in those gains - that was a fantastic trade, hope some of you do the same, earnings are out on this one Thursday pre-market, fwiw.....the Euro short is still 4% above my sell target of 48, I sold at the target but still have an "in play" on it because it is still over target - just use a stop if you are still holding this one....I am not trading anything else yet - I have looked at a few spec plays and kind of like BQI, an oil sands play, but I think I can get into it for less than the .70's if patient, so that one is a wait and see.....still like ABX (Barrick Gold) but like I said on Friday - I think the gold diggers are going to get smoked, so I am not jumping into gold with the herd just yet...also, let's give PLUGPOWER, (PLUG) a plug.....for any speculators of alternative energy, power cells....PLUG looks to me in the chart that it is going to give a dead cat bounce trade...maybe 10%+ but use a limit buy order and then place a sell order at a designated price for that trade....no play on any etf shorts or longs - just playing the free AEZS and watching the volatile action for now, maybe flip some PLUG today....good luck trading and grind out the profit!
May 6, 2010
SINKO de mayo was more appropriate today! So the blame is on a Citi trader typing a B instead of an M????? Someone call Vanna White - we need to buy a VOWEL! The only BM's going on today were at the traders desk, Greece is the word.......molotov cocktail anyone????? after the initial selloff, they brought it back for now but I beleive there is going to be an awful lot more selling in the near future.........so where to hide is the question......I see that my DRR shot up to an intraday high of 58, not too shabby of a run from 51 - it closed the day just shy of 53. The Euro will continue to erode, I am afraid and it will probably drop another 25-30%, so DRR the inverse or "double short" ETF is still in play and should yield no less than 40% more before it peaks, I believe. Our spec play (AEZS) ran a nice 24% today for us - much more to go there also I think, this little bio will be well known in the near future I believe as word of their breakthrough technology on the cancer treatment front gets more press..........gold hoarders are going to run that commodity up but I just don't see the chart as healthy as people are touting it - I will say that if I were going to play an etf for gold it would be GDXJ and my personal favorite play would be ABX (Barrick).....they would my only exposure and ABX is really my favorite of the two......tomorrow I will probably post about a few etf's that have some room for run....but as for now, I am laying low, playing the spec of AEZS and shorting the Euro...........good luck and grind out the profit!
May 5, 2010
Well - I am back after a fairly long layoff from posting here. Too much going on. I have been keeping up with the various private groups as some here know, but now it is back to posting the forecasts here on the "homesite" again. Anyhow, I have a new spec play for your consideration......I have been accumulating (AEZS) for the past few weeks and it looks like it will be "in play" for awhile. My average PPS is about 1.02/share after adding to the initial .80's purchase on the way up......interesting little bio-tech that has a revenue sharing license agreement with KERX and a fairly loaded pipeline of various phased treatments awaiting approval - it could turn into a real monster in my opinion - take a thorough look at the stats, etc. for yourself before you jump in though - these can be tricky.......I sold ERX after the initial purchase at 28.65 (I publicly gave a $48 handle top on this one and it actually crossed $50 for a top)....looking for energy relateds to take a little pause after that nice run.....currency traders will like the DRR move I gave at $42-44 and I beleive there is still ALOT of room shorting the Euro, so DRR is STILL IN PLAY! I haven't liked many of the triple long or short etf's lately but may revisit a few trends over the next few days and will post an update if I see anything I like, I am being cautious right now trying to determine if this sell-off in the markets the past few days is the begining of something big or just a sucker play to lure in the shorts.....we'll see.....also considering picking a piece of the gold juniors up tomorrow (GDXJ) - a flight to the safe haven of gold may well be in order.........good luck trading and grind out the profit!
10/09/09
Well that was a quick trade - we hit one and missed one! TZA STOP LOSS was taken out almost immediately @ 11.30/share for a minimal loss - but DRR was filled @ 39.80 for the first lot....time to accumulate DRR I guess - that will be my only trade for this week I think - good luck trading and grind out the profit!
10/09/09
Well that was a short lived sideline play - my 11.50 buy order was filled yesterday for a 4,000 lot of TZA - so we are already back in the game on the short side - this market is getting ready to tip one way or the other in a wide swing I think - here's to hoping it is to the short side - as always - use a good STOP LOss for protection - also, DRR the double short Euro, has finally hit sub $40/share, my target price for the past 3 months - it is time to begin a position, I believe, in blocks of 100 for now.....good luck trading and grind out the profit!
10/06/2009
Not liking the action today - sold all TZA for 12.24 - a measely .10/share gain ($400.00) but we have to be safe here - I expected a major pullback on the S&P to begin today and it did not, so it's time to let the uncertainty play out and sit on the sidelines until a decisive move goes one way or the other........maybe a new position on Thursday - we'll see............good luck trading and grind out the profit!
10/06/09
Wow! that was a pretty nice trade we had there with the BGZ and TZA - both STOPS were hit and executed but the gains were pretty nice 23.25 (.75 x 2000) on the BGZ and 13.50! on the TZA (2.01 X 1000)- sweet - .....and the pre-determined 1054 on the S&P was hit EXACTLY! We don't get it that close too often...........so here is the play - a roundtrip with ONLY TZA this time - a 4 lot (4,000 shares) after the close today @ 12.13, that's it - and a little looser of a STOP on this as we have a nice gain off the last two trades with this to soften the blow of any unexpected market run-up ......I am going to use about an 8% trailing STOP this time around - I think S&P 985 is the lower band on the chart over the next week or so, so I am calling it there for now, also, I have a new penny stock in sight, ADAT - as always - do your own DD on this........good luck trading and grind out the profit!
October 1, 2009
Well, still in "short only mode".....added 1000 TZA @ 11.49 to the 2000 BGZ's @ 22.50................these will be very nice returns.......I actually may add some more TZA for a daytrade on Friday pre-market, although I expect I will have to pay a premium then........it has been tough to post/update - I have been very busy lately but many of you are members of the Stockstop and other trading sites so we usually catch up at some point anyway......good luck trading and grind out the profit!
September 11, 2009
Well, it looks like the right time to re-buy BGZ folks. The last go round gave us a nice 8% return for the week - I will be a buyer here in the mid 22's today ...........not playing anything to the long side because it looks a little overbought to me right now but I do have my eye on the aforementioned NOK, EDR and the DRR (short Euro)is probably a good buy in here although I am holding out on that one for a little longer as well........so that's it - a double lot (2000 shares) of BGZ in the mid 22's...........good luck trading and grind out the profit!
September 8, 2009
Well we got stopped out of our BGZ trade on Thursday at 25.97 for an 8% return over 6 trading days - time now to sit on the sidelines until the run completes itself to short again - no trades for now - 100% cash on the sidelines............boring but safe for now.....good luck trading and grind out the profit.
September 1, 2009
Just a quick update - still only holding BGZ, I have added a second lot yesterday at 24.50...........not going to hcase Nokia on it's recent run, I am waiting for it to pullback - also, our last PFWD trade went well and that has pulled back some but I am waiting for a lower price and finally another cheapie - EDR, they are in the sights but haven't yet pulled the trigger there, either.....................good luck trading and grind out the profit!
August 24, 2009
OK traders, here's the deal - we sold our PFWD this morning for a nice 8% over the course of a week - and have now taken a short term SHORT position in BGZ @ 23.45/share....naturally we have a well positioned STOP LOSS in place in case this trade goes the wrong way - BUT, the markets appear to be overbought so we will once again try to play the down side on the Large Cap (3X) BEAR ETF - that is to say - we make (3X) the market loss on a sell-off..........that is the ONLY trade we have in play right now - we are still waiting on NOKIA (NOK) to drop before we make our play there......good luck trading and grind out the profit!
August 20,2009
Good day traders.....I got my fill of the new spec play mentioned here the other day, so here it is for the free board....(PFWD) Phase Forward,Inc. - check them out. They have virtually zero debt, a nice balance sheet, a niche product and they are in a growing market....they look like a nice play to me but again, do your own due dilligence, I think 16 is easily obtainable if not more off a buyout, as always, use a STOP LOSS for protection. I have raised my STOP LOSS on TZA, remember this was purchased last week in the 14's, the market action has already put us nicely positive over (4) trading days so it is on cruise control with a net profit stop in place - we cannot lose on this trade.......a good feeling. I am still sitting on the fence over NOKIA (NOK) although I may pick some up today off a dip - the 12's are very enticing on NOK but 11's or less are even nicer looking and I think we will see that today on Nokia....anyway, good luck trading and grind out the profit!
August 17, 2009
Wow - I haven't updated in nearly a month! Been way too busy with things that matter more than money......anyway, followers here know that ON2 was (tentatively) bought by Google for a 200+% gain, not too shabby....I know there are shareholders who have filed a lawsuit saying the price offered by the GOOG was too low - but that's life, I sold every share....but if for some reason GOOG walsk away and the PPS drops again - I will be back for a re-load and another play...time will tell ....so now we need another play for our spec followers - well I have it! But this one is not a penny stock......it is currently at 12 and change and I plan on taking a large position this week in the 11's, which I think is very probable......so stay tuned - here is a clue...it is a (4) letter ticker which begins with a (P)....that's the only info until AFTER I buy mine......also, did anyone buy BX???? Remember I gave you that and Wal-Mart as trades - if you did, you made some SERIOUS jingle..........OK - my play since last Thursday has been TZA the triple short small cap ETF - I am fully loaded and have a stop loss set at 13 - I will now raise that stop as there is a significant gain in place in just 3 days....so for those playing the short side - enjoy the sell-off in the markets.....for 401K players - I would switch now to fixed income with ALL of my balance and I would be a 100% BUYER with all new monies on the sell-off getting shares cheap - but that's just me.........anyway....boycott Vick and the Eagles......good luck trading and grind out the profit!
July 20, 2009
well......let the sell-off begin is all I can say - the chart of the S&P has now formed the final right shoulder for a head and shoulders completion - I have added to SPXU now at three intervals: 69, 67, 66.50...........locked and loaded for the ensuing sell-off..........DRR is almost a buy for traders watching the currencies, just a few more points to go there......good luck trading and grind out the profit!
July 16, 2009
Ok time for another swing trade - I sold DYY today for a 10% pop over three days - not too shabby.......and loaded the first block of (SPXU), a triple short S&P ETF today @ $69/share. There was a nice little bear market rally this week that we traded into for tha safe 10% DYY gain - but now I am going short again and will hold this new short position until the charts indicate otherwise.......as I said earlier in the week - this volatility in the markets allows for some nice trades if you are paying attention........I was tempted to pick up some Nokia (NOK) on that 15% sell-off but the chart is really screwy looking - I may take a stab tomorrow depending on the action there..........Apple looks really expensive to me - for traders who short individual stocks that may have some play in it........
and finally DRR, the double short euro is almost at the point of no return chartwise......meaning EVERYONE has given up on it - the volume is extremely low and the price per share is nearing an entry point, IMO......I expect another midsized spike lower and then it will be time to POUNCE! Currently @ 1.41 vs. the dollar, I can't see this getting much higher than 1.50 and I believe that the high 30's will be a great entry point for traders of DRR - last time around we did quite well from buying DRR at 28 and selling at 54.......perhaps another 80%+ trade is going to unfold for us there again...we'll see..........oh, yeah - one more thing.......the spec play (ONT) ON2 Technologies (currently up 80+% on MAJOR holding)has feelers out for a new product logo...apparently they will be releasing a new high efficient codec for mobile apps very soon, spec traders may want to research this a little further - their earnings report and conference call are coming up so pay attention to the volume and price action on this penny stock if you are so inclined.......good luck trading and grind out the profit!
July 13, 2009
Picked up (DYY) today in the 5.70's....looks like a nice play into the commodities arena with the double long ETF, I actually expected it to blast through 6 today but it never really got the expected kick..... - the short trades in TZA and FAZ were closed out for nice gains Thursday and we will revisit those again in around the S&P 915-920 area - remember, I have a target bottom of 710 for S&P by around October - there will be some nice opportunities to trade long & short along the way - today was a perfect example......toyed with picking up some Citi (C) on the cheap after the sell-off due to BK fears but decided to just let that one play out on its own.....(BX) is on my radar lately - I was ready to buy it Friday in the high 8's but I believe it has a 7 handle coming in the next week or two......I will give that one a little more time to settle out before making a buy - hopefully low 8's or high 7's........WalMart (WMT) is near a cycle bottom for those who like stable 10% gainers midterm....it will probably hit low 50's within a month, I was convinced I would get a shot at WMT around 45 but it seems to have a base in the 47 area.....and finally (DRR) the double short Euro ETF - will this thing get down to below 40 already so I can load up on it again - I would go long the euro until DRR goes to the high 30's, then switch to short the euro - .........back to work for me....oh and a week with no celebrities dying...nothing to write about.........good luck trading and grind out the profit!
July 2, 2009
The King of POP is gone..............D'OH.......and I don't mean the silver gloved wonder!..........I am talking about the fictitious bull rally we have had over the past (3) months in this Bear market!........just BEAT IT!.........I have reloaded the short side after last weeks trades and am looking forward to capitalizing on the inevitable sell-off that the charts are showing - here's the long and short, short and sweet of it - the DOW is looking to retest 7000 and the S&P is looking to dip to the 710 area before summers end.............that's what it looks like to me anyway......of course you will be hard pressed to find anyone else who will make such a bold and outlandish call so early.......so I will not update the page unless the highs of the past month are taken out - DOW June 11th, 8736 - S&P June 11th, 956.........it's not gonna happen, IMO......the jig is up ... the grinder has given the green light to pretty much short every and any equity you like - they are basically all headed south - regardless of the TARP, PPIP, STIMULUS, yada yada - retail is dead, automotive is dead, travel is dead and the jobs report this morning will be the final nail.......401 players - MAX IT OUT at the discounted prices - you'll be glad you did later......it looks like I will not be posting again until October if the charts are right...............but then again - even Bubbles could throw a dart and get lucky now and then...............e-hee.................good luck trading.......moooooooooooonnnnn waaaallllllllllk.............and grind out the profit :)
June 22, 2009
Heeeeeee's baaaaaaaaaaaaaaacccccccckkkkkk!
Hello traders, it's been over a month since I have posted....too busy with things that matter! I have been on several of the subscription and public sites daily, as many readers who I associate with know - but haven't spent much time updating the "free" site with trades for followers of the grind out site....anyway, some of you from the other sites know that I have been into EEV since mid 19's and have a STOP LOSS in place at 22.....the other short holdings are FAZ from mid to upper 4's and finally, on the short side, TZA the most recent purchase last week at 22.50/share - these will probably be held until at least Friday depending on the chart action.....the trend reversal since the March run has turned and it looks like profit takers are going to continue to cause the markets to sell-off a little more, IMO.....I also added to ONT last week from profits off of a day trade @ .39.....I have a very low average in this one with a +80% gain so far and I am comfortable adding at a higher PPS because I do not think I can get hurt there - but as always, do your own due dilligence and use a STOP! I see alot of potential still out there both on the long and short side....I have the sights locked in on NOKIA (NOK) for a long term hold and Zicam (MTXX) as a flip trade - also liking Verizon (VZ) but haven't pulled the trigger yet - possibly tomorrow....anyway as Ed McMahon would say (if he were here to say it) HiOH - HHEEEEEEEEERRRREEEEEE'S JOHNNY!.......D'OH, good luck trading and grind out the profit!
May 19. 2009
....haven't been posting for awhile - too busy with other things....anyway - the stops were taken out in BGZ and FAZ, the markets took many shorts by surprise and positions had to be liquidated to preserve capital...the only thing in play at this point is the spec play ONT - currently up over 80% from the mid .20's purchase price....an extremely overweight holding but fortunately it is holding well....their yearly Conference Call is tomorrow so I expect a PR or two today and tomorrow on product development and/or customer deals - but who knows, their management has been pretty elusive with the details over the years....as for the Unilever - (UN) I have still not made a buy there - had a buy order in last week but missed it by .20/share - next day it runs 20% of an earnings miss - go figure........it is now up 35% from that low so I will look for an entry off a pullback.....the only thing I have been watching is commodities and with the recent run ups, there will have to be some kind of pullback for entry there - I'm not going to try and chase these....looks like possible S&P 930's before a retrace to me....good luck trading and grind out the profit!
May 13, 2009
The market is going to continue lower in my opinion - it is simply overbought and financials PE ratios are ridiculously high - GM is going to close the doors on several thousand dealers - along with them numerous suppliers will also feel the pinch - this is going to take a big toll on unemployment numbers - on the bright side (ONT) ON2 Technologies is breaking out nicely - I have given this one to readers since the low .20's, I believe there is alot of room left on this one for both traders and longer term holders - as usual do your own due dilligence - SDS looks like a buy to me as another short play, commercial real estate may be due to sell of a touch - good luck trading and grind out the profit!
May 12, 2009
Well nothing much has changed in my opinion - I am still short and looking at the rollover that is occurring.....it appears that the masses following this suckers rally may be led to the slaughter house once again....according to TrimTabs, April saw the lowest level of insider BUYING ever recorded, with insider SELLING 14 times as high....companies sold 64% more shares than they bought...this is selling into the retail buying - in other words - there are going to be alot more bagholders in the markets soon.......Joe sixpack and his 401K manager were misled once again.....banks are in worse shape than anyone thought - Decembers losses were not accounted for on their earnings reports - they were told to disregard them - nearly every bank is selling new shares (dilution) to raise money to repay TARP, yet all you here is supposed "good news" from CNBC and the like - watch Gold and Oil as they and other commodities are rising to new highs - things are not better, they are falling off a cliff - hard assets like real estate are getting cheaper - there is no equity for homeowners to draw from as many are backwards on their mortgages - this equity is what has fueled the economy in the past - people can no longer use their homes as an ATM - credit card debt in high and is also now limited - CC companies are lowering and/or eliminating credit lines - the consumer is being shut off from the credit faucet - it is dried up - retailers are going to be pinched next as people have less cash to spend frivolously - if I were a 401K investor I would switch to all cash Money Market and raise my contribution to the Max so as to accumulate as many shares as possible - this is the same advice I have given in the past - lock in recent gains and accumulate on the selloff - not trying to be a doom and gloomer here - just spelling it out the way I see it over the next few months - stimulus is not trickle down money - the large contractors (unions) will get the majority of that reward package from the Democratic machine - to me it was nothing more than a Thank You from the administration - .....think about it - read everything you can about the day to day business world - keep some powder dry - you will be able to get some nice buys in equities soon, I believe - good luck trading and grind out the profit!
May 7, 2009
Well, the shorts survived with the sell-off in the markets today and it looks like the bear market rally is going to come to a screeching halt.......the stress test results are in, so the hoopla is over - there are no more green shoots or mustard seeds or bullets or whatever the newest jingle they are going to coin tomorrow is supposed to be.....job numbers are due out in the morning and they will probably be worse than expected - of course, the talking heads at CNBC will say these numbers were "baked in" as they always do and the rah-rah cheerleaders will be at it again, pumping up the sheep to "buy more" - from where I sit there will be profit taking galore starting tomorrow by the big money players, the ones who have convinced so many to buy recently, the big boys will sell and take away the profits as they always do - the charts have absolutely peaked - no doubt about it - the false financial bull run of the past few weeks is over, IMO - dilution is on the way to most financials - not a good thing......stick a fork in GM & Chrysler, they are baked and with them many auto suppliers as well - housing is flat, oil is rising again and gold and silver are once again on the rise....credit card defaults are the next big shoe to drop....foreclosures are again on the rise........am I missing anything - oh yeah, Commercial Real Estate paper .....add that to the list - growing numbers of vacancies and notes coming due are not a good thing either....on a positive note, Unilever (UN) was up 10% today - after it announced it had a drop in profits of 46% compared to last year....go figure...and here I was looking to get in at 18!?.....again, I must be missing something in that earnings report.....anyway.....only three plays currently - of course the ever present ONT, (currently up 54%) and BGZ & FAZ both down in the neighbor hood of 30% - the 90% gains since August have been cut into - but not that badly, the short side exposure is limited as a percentage of portfolio value.....remember to use STOP LOSSES!....I am looking for one more drop in the markets before committing to the long side again and I think it is here right now.....time will tell......good luck trading and grind out the profit!
May, 6 2009
Been away from the board for almost a week....too much going on...the SDS was stopped out for a 20% loss but FAZ and BGZ are still in play although both have had a major haircut this week - go figure - tomorrow will be due or die for both of those I imagine - if the market heads south they will survive but probably not, with the insanity of the financials I will probably be stopped out of both of those tomorrow and then it will be onto the sidelines until things settle down - I imagine there will be quite a bit of profit taking soon - this bear rally has gone on for too long....good luck trading and grind out the profit!
April 30, 2009
Wow, even with all of the governmental manipulation, the S&P still cannot break out of that wedge - 875 has been major resistance and it looks like the buying opportunities in the short ETF's have officially ended....this has been a great opportunity to average down in these though - I am now more confident than ever of a nice profit trade going forward on this short trade....average now at 63 SDS, 44 BGZ and 9.50 FAZ...we'll see, still 100% short aside from the ONT spec play....how about the US government bailing out the privately held Chrysler Corp - makes you feel good, huh!......next in line will be the publicly traded GM...more stimulus at work for the taxpayers......gotta love the spreading of the wealth....back to reality - unemployment still rising, housing defaults still rising, financials cooking their books like never before - and they were real bad before - tells me we are headed lower from here.......but being stuck in this trading range over the past few weeks has been frustrating to say the least - it was good for adding at cheaper prices on the short side though - we had some nice bear market rally daytrades (for those on the public boards) but now it is back to just the three short holdings for me......good luck trading and grind out the profit!
April 29, 2009
It looks like a declining price channel has definitely formed on the S&P chart - therefore it should continue to drop over the next week or so - although probably gradually.....just about 825 should be the first stop on the way down to sub 800 overall I believe....I have not made any changes in holdings - still sitting on SDS, BGZ and FAZ......anybody check out the manipulation that took place on Dendreon (DNDN) yesterday?....from 25 to 11 right back to 25 after they took out the stops - WOW! would've been ugly being in that one yesterday.......good luck trading and grind out the profit
April 28, 2009
It looks like Citi and Bank of America need to raise more capital, they'll probably sell more common shares to raise it - diluting the common which will have a negative impact on their share prices - bad for them, good for FAZ......the overall markets are in a corrective pullback, for those looking to add to long positions, I think it is too early - the charts are indicating a much lower low than where we are currently - I would wait a little longer and see how it plays out......obvious trades for sideliners would be BGZ, SDS, TNA, SKF, SRS, EEV, etc. but don't forget to use a STOP or a trailing STOP to lock in gains......I have been patiently awaiting the buy of UNILEVER (UN) as a long term play and it looks like by weeks end or next week I will get a reasonable buy-in price.....I think there is a prolonged sell-off underway now that will probably be both the last sell-off for awhile, however, it will probably be a fairly steep decline, IMO.........good luck trading and grind out the profit!
April 27, 2009
Has the day of reckoning finally arrived?.........I thought for sure I was going to get stopped out of my short positions going into the close on Friday but surprisingly all of my STOPS held up. BGZ, SDS and FAZ are all still in play - although they are moderately underwater at this point....average PPS are 53, 73 & 11, respectively...this is why I say you need to have a high risk tolerance when playing these multiple based ETF's, they are great when daytrading and momentum is going your way - but long term they can get tricky....it looks like they are on track to rebound in this area though - as for the swine flu moving the markets - I wouldn't put too much credibility in that being the reason if the markets go down....maybe a little influence but not the major reason. There is so much negative news aside from the swine breakout, in addition the GM bankruptcy is a major issue in and of itself.....TARP investigation by AG Cuomo, cooked financials at the banks - again, overbought indices, rising unemployment and increasing rates of foreclosure and default - also, insider selling at the financials is (8) times greater than insider buying - this tells you the corporate leaders are selling into the retail buying, in other words, they are leaving the common shareholders holding the bag.....there are alot of reasons the markets are due to pullback, for this reason I am staying short for awhile longer.....good luck trading and grind out the profit!
April 24, 2009
Amazing.....but not surprising I guess....I beleive that the run that was witnessed into the close of the trading day Thursday was what is referred to as a "blow off top"...a last hurrah into an inevitable sell off....there was absolutely no good news driving this run, GM and Chrysler announced that they are going to file bankruptcy next week....Amazon, Microsoft and virtually every other company reporting today MISSED their earnings targets - I do not get it.....good luck - I have nothing else to say, except that I am dumbfounded.
April 22, 2009
Aside from the GM bomb that was dropped about shuttering its manufacturing facilities.....and the ridiculous feel good market run recently, that has been falsely propping the markets - specifically the financials.....the "TARP TRAP" may well be far more serious and painful to many longs than the BEAR TRAP that has been set over the past (5) weeks........this investigation is going to roil the markets like you have never seen, IMO, I am glad I am now 100% short - with the exception of one penny stock spec play (ONT) (and DO NOT BUY IT, unless you research it first!).......going forward, look out below is all I can say. Whenever money is involved - and big money is clearly involved here - there is bound to be theft, cronyism and corruption....period.....now the TARP dust is clearing and we are beginning to see that indeed - once again, the bankers and administrators of the financial systems are in the thick of it - lying on TARP applications, misappropriating and illegally using the TARP Funds - to reiterate last weeks blog - enough is NEVER enough for these guys, they want ALL of the money....and this time it came directly from the backs of the American public, who will once again bear the burden of paying it all back, in some fashion, whether through a fee or a tax or a budget cut....money is indeed the root of all evil...and "We The People" will bear the burden. I hear Kudlow and these other talking heads spewing bunk of green shoots and mustard seeds of growth on the network business channels - that the markets are rebounding and we are headed back to the highs of all times - can these guys really believe what they are saying!?!.....Apple beats analyst estimates and these guys are on a high - the former 60's potheads are now rah-rah podheads....imagine that, an mp3 player is going to save the US economy - insanity! Our manufacturing base has diminished to Ipods and loan schemes - they are about all we produce in abundance, that and Ponzi schemes apparently.....pessimistic about the future of our country - you bet I am.....how about instead of working on relationships with the communist dictators and setting up travel plans for the illegal immigrant families to come and go back and forth to Cuba, we work on figuring out which of the administrators of the bankrupt financial institutions caused the losses of trillions dollars of American workers retirement funds and spend a little time PROSECUTING some of them......how's that for a start of using taxpayers dollars wisely - how about taking a few steps to ease the burden of the average Joe, so we do not need to read about another neighbor that lost his house, his job, his dignity and his mind and took not only his life but those of his (3) innocent kids and his wife, too......where's the "Change You Can Believe In" crowd now - oh, that's right, they have bigger fish to fry - they're busy trying to prosecute the returning veterans for dipping a known terrorists head under water for a few seconds - it's repulsive, the extent of deterioration that has occurred to our once great nation. We used to honor our vets with a heroes welcome and ticker tape parades....the new regime welcomes our vets with handcuffs and interrogations......these are the men and women who insure that no wars are ever to take place on American soil, if we were threatened, we went and did what we had to do - we didn't want to but we had to...... I guess that all is not fair in love and war, for some sides..........truer words have never been spoken, "United we stand, divided we fall", think about it - do what you can to keep your America the best and safest place to live and worship, perhaps in time, the principles and values that were set forth by the founding fathers will find their way back into the hearts and minds of the supposed intellectual corporate vermon who have been so blinded by greed and egotism - perhaps but probably not. Just try to keep YOUR head above water - and in my opinion - you better keep TIGHT stops in place if you are a long investor, I may be wrong but the charts are telling a different story lately, the economy, as well as the average American worker is exhausted....they are about to take a break, I think. Just be cautious - even in a 401K, you can switch to the money market if you can't short or if you feel it's "unamerican" to determine that the markets are going to go down and you are not comfortable playing that market direction - aka, short - and i say "playing" because that's all that it is - a game...investing is simply a guessing game....think about it - who knows what tomorrow will bring.......good luck trading....and grind out the profit - I think you're going to need it!
April 21, 2009
The bottom is dropping out on all chart indicators again.....it looks like we are headed back to testing the mid-term index lows......that should bring another 7-10% on FAZ, SDS and BGZ minimum.....the momentum is clearly to the downside - I am staying short for now.....we'll re-evaluate after this next blowoff to see if there will be a long play to trade or a continuance to the downside....good luck trading and grind out the profit!
April 20, 2009
....after a weeklong hiatus, I am back to posting.....and not much has changed on my end....aside from adding a bit more FAZ in the 9's last week, I remain on the short side with BGZ, SDS, and FAZ - and still holding a large block of ONT as a spec play...I am still waiting for the sell-off on UN to pick that one up for a long term hold and think by next week that opportunity will arise...I can't beleive this bear market rally has had this strong of a run off of these cooked financial earnings reports - without these accounting changes this market would have tanked huge - what I can't understand is how/why people would be investing in these corporations that clearly file false statements - but that's just me I guess........anyway - I am still looking for that one last breakdown in the indices before going long for a long, long time...and I think theat time has finally arrived........also, lastly I have another spec play in sight - NT, Nortel Networks....probably will be broken up/sold and will probably get a boost from pennyland on that move......very speculative - do your own DD.......good luck trading and grind out the profit!
April 14, 2009
Well, we finally broke through that false bear market rally, huh! About time, I was losing patience....I added to the FAZ but held steady both BGZ and SDS - although I am a bit surprised I was never stopped out along the way.....I keep a very wide STOP loss on these because of the volatility associated with them......so where do we go from here - I believe much, much lower.....GS cooked the quarterly report I see, not including December in their numbers...you would think outrage would have followed but just to the contrary - after the early release Monday evening, the stock actually went up - common sense prevailed today though and so begins the much overdue sell-off.....I had a strong feeling that after WalMart released their missed quarterly numbers, we were going to head lower, WalMart is run by honest/decent people....they report ACTUAL earnings, not numbers that just look good on paper - but that was last Thursday, they were completely ignored by most...also there were several other misses that were overlooked by traders - they were also dismissed by most due to the euphoria traders were experiencing chasing those financials to such elevated levels - I believe there is a serious short-term memory problem with too many traders....doesn't anyone remember who/what got us into this mess to begin with? Some of these financials are trading at 4X off thier previous lows in just over a month - c'mon - be realistic! FAZ went from $110 to $9 because of this manipulation and short squeeze rally - even if it only triples from here to the 30 area...that's not a bad trade....and it will probably be going higher, IMO....BGZ and SDS are directly related to indexes (the Russell and the S&P respectively) ....they are at near breakeven for me at 53 & 72, these were great buys since last week and IMO still have plenty of room to be accumulated this week.....if the associated indexes retreat to anywhere near where I believe they are going - it is EASY money in the bank off of these trades folks.............nothing goes up in a straight line like the financials over the past few weeks - and the repercussions will be fierce to the downside - the fear of losing profits will start to set-in beginning tomorrow on many of these high flyers of late - and when the herds are rushing for the doors....the drops on the indexes can be staggering......maybe Uncle Ben or Tim the toolman Geithner will give the "Wheel-o-PR" another spin tomorrow to try and extend the rally that has been in play - but I don't think that will help much at this point - they let the markets overheat.....so stick a fork in it IMO, this turkey is done.....take your long profits off the table if you can, go short for now or just sit back and watch the drops.....good trading and grind out the profit!
April 13, 2009
Nothing major to post today - still holding SDS, BGZ and a little FAZ.....looking for a reversal to begin today.....good luck trading and grind out the profit!
April 9, 2009
Well the WFC news sure threw a loop into my BGZ and the SDS I added to it yesterday! Still holding it into next week though and will have a tough go of it as the shorts get squeezed pretty hard today - I was able to get a nice fill of FAZ at 13.75 pre-market though......good trading and grind out the profit!
April 8, 2009
We have been on a nice roll again this week so far....BGZ has performed well for us since last Friday and it looks to continue returning nice profits according to the chart.....I will continue to hold this (average PPS 53.95) with a trailing stop in place but fully expect this recent downtrend in the major indices to carry BGZ much higher so I do not believe I will get stopped out anytime soon......today, I also added SDS pre-market at 73.52/share....I was charting the DOW and S&P along with several other indexes to re-assure myself of the BGZ play when I noticed that the SDS (a double short S&P play) was looking to have a major breakout to the upside - I'm only sorry I hadn't charted it A/H last night becasue I would have bought it then....as a result I had to pay a $2 premium to yesterdays close but not a big deal, when the charts say the S&P is ready to retest the old lows, anything near this current level of SDS is a strong buy to me - just remember to use a stop loss in case the markets turn on you.....and finally, good old ON2 Technologies (ONT)....this spec play is still being held.....average PPS is .22 so I have a long way to go until breakeven on this one - it's tough to accurately chart penny stocks like this with there erratic volumes and sporaic news releases, etc. but it LOOKS LIKE it is setting up for a pop to me so I am continuing to hold this one (currently up 54%).....and finally put (UN) - Unilever on your watch list, I know I gave the board this play last month at a much lower price but I thought we would get a pullback to around 16 to buy it on the cheap, it only made it down to 17 at that time - if you get the opportunity on a sell-off to get some UN around or below below 18 - GRAB IT - I have a good feeling about UN going forward........good luck trading and grind out the profit!
April 7, 2009
Yesterday was nothing more than a "painted tape close" in my opinion.....there was absolutely no reason for the attempted rally into the close, from down over 150 to a settlement of down 41 was ridiculous and blatant manipulation - this is the type of move that raises eyebrows about the legitimacy of the market systems.....that said, markets are going to do what they set out to do and this market is in retreat mode, I believe. That said, I still have only one holding currently - BGZ, but tried to pick up some DGP after hours last night at 17.60....I was not able to get a fill and see that pre-market today it is at 17.98 already so I will not chase it higher but Gold looks like it is going to rise short term.......so there it is....I am staying short with BGZ.....for those who may like to daytrade an etf, TZA or TWM may be worth a look.......good luck trading and grind out the profit!
April 6, 2009
Kim Jong pulled the "triple dog dare" over the weekend when he lobbed a missile over Japan, the markets overseas shrugged it off as a non-event and several diplomats have cried foul....more to follow on that one I imagine - China was hoping it landed there instead of the ocean so they could melt it down and open an auto manufacturing plant with it - Russia was hoping it landed there so they could dig it up and claim a new copper mine was discovered and Discovery Corp stock will probably triple today if they send Explorer down into the depths to retrieve the warhead for scrap....only in this warped market....on a serious note, we are clearly in an oversold state right now and a pullback is inevitable - my S&P chart show 845 as a top and a retrace to sub 670....I am still holding BGZ (triple short DOW)and decided to put a "Sell" order in for LNC, realizing a loss of 10%.....I will not hold any long positions (aside from the ONT spec play, currently up 64%) until the BGZ is sold......that's it - back to single plays for what I beleive will be a fairly significant sell-off from here.........good luck trading and grind out the profit!
April 4, 2009
Well, it looks to me like the Mark to Market expectations were a dud....the financials rallied early and then flattened out...actually they sold off lower throughout the day as profit takers saw the writing on the wall and cashed in. I believe that a bear trap rally was set over the past week and have taken a BGZ position averaged in at 53.95, aside from the ONT spec play (which is now up 72%), I am only holding LNC which is underwater to the tune of 9%....I will play that one a little longer looking to either average down or dump it - play the trends....watch for a bad jobs report to sell off the recent rally.....good luck trading and grind out the profit!
April 2, 2009 - Intraday update
I have only posted an intraday update once in the past....I am selling into todays rally...all DYY, ATVI and FAS have now been sold - FAS was a 40% gainer...DYY was sold at 6.11 for 11% return and ATVI was sold at 11.08 for another 5.5%....the LNC purchased at 7.13 is still a hold because it is in the red....there is not enough clarity for me in this run....I have averaged down the initial BGZ block of 55.50 just now with an equal weighted block at 52.40....average PPS now is 53.95....I feel like this was a suckers rally and fully expect a drop to begin this afternoon prior to close or tomorrow.....good luck trading and grind out the profit.
April 2, 2009
Well this is an early page update for me. I usually do the write up later in the day but I am letting the board know that FAS was sold pre-market @ 6.78 for just about a 40% gain on that trade....at the same time, I went long with BGZ....the triple short DOW etf.....looking for a sell the news event off of the M2M hype today which should add some to the PPS of BGZ. I may be a bit early on this trade, but the discount of 55.50 from 59.50 was too good to pass up pre-market, so that is todays buy, BGZ @ 55.50......time will tell there, I think it will be a relatively flat to down day...tomorrow however, I think we will see a sell off on jobs numbers - that is another one of the reasons for the BGZ play today - "get in early" ............also, LNC DYY and ATVI are still in "hold" mode for the time being....I have not placed STOPS on any of these for today. Not a bad week so far......board followers have had substantial gains so far........View Past Trends for verification..........good luck trading and grind out the profit.
April 1, 2009
Another great day to be long the financials...our little FAS trade added another 8% today....with the M2M rule changes tomorrow, I fully expect another good trading day coming for all financials, I just can't see the rules being changed to hurt them, on the contrary, I think our government wants to help the financials in any way that they can right now. I am still holding FAS - no stop was used today and probably none will be entered tomorrow either. Our little ONT spec play from last night gave traders 15%+ opportuities today....I am still a holder of this and have unrealized gains of 50% as of the close - I think it goes higher, again - total spec play, do your own due dilligence.......DYY and ATVI are still "Holds", they are flat - but again, as I have stated - these are longer term trades - we are accumulating right now.........and finally, Lincoln National was brought to my attention tonight by a board follower.....to me LNC looks like it is about to run to the 11 area - again, do your own DD on this one, the insurers have been pummeled but recently they have bounced back pretty good - I think they have more upside potential and added a trading block of LNC tonight A/H @ 7.18, a small premium off the close but hey - it may gap tomorrow on the M2M news as well.........good luck trading and grind out the profit!